The path to Hamas disarmament — the central prerequisite for everything else in Gaza’s peace process — is being mapped in back channels and regional conversations, not in formal negotiations. Two scenarios are under quiet discussion: Hamas placing its weapons in sealed depots under outside supervision, or Hamas surrendering heavy arms while keeping some handguns for policing.
Neither scenario has been formally proposed or accepted. Neither scenario fully meets Israel’s demand for complete demilitarization, which Netanyahu has defined as encompassing everything from rocket-propelled grenades to rifles. One regional official involved in the discussions described disarmament as a complicated process that could take months — and that was framed as optimistic.
Hamas’s position begins from the premise that its security forces need weapons to maintain order during any transition period. The political logic is clear: Hamas agreeing to full disarmament before a Palestinian state is established — and before it can verify that its disarmament will not simply lead to its elimination — is a concession of enormous strategic consequence.
Trump’s Board of Peace, convening its first meeting Thursday, is the international forum designed to hold these competing positions in tension while pressing for a workable outcome. Its founding membership includes Qatar and Turkey — countries with direct relationships with Hamas that could be essential to advancing any disarmament conversation.
But time is not unlimited. The board’s expert observers have warned that without fast, tangible results from the first meeting, credibility will crumble. The disarmament dance is slow. The ceasefire is fragile. And the humanitarian situation in Gaza is urgent. Reconciling those timelines is the board’s most fundamental challenge.