A European plan to provide Ukraine with postwar security guarantees has run into a formidable obstacle: a direct threat from Vladimir Putin. The Russian leader declared on Friday that any Western military personnel deployed in Ukraine, for any reason, would be viewed as hostile combatants and become targets for the Russian army.
This aggressive stance follows an announcement by French President Emmanuel Macron that a coalition of 26 countries was preparing a security package for Kyiv, including a military presence. Macron envisioned these guarantees being activated “the day the conflict stops,” but Putin’s threat fundamentally challenges the viability of such a plan, casting a shadow over future security arrangements.
The internal dynamics of the Western alliance reveal a lack of consensus. While France is pushing for a tangible commitment, other influential members, including Germany and Spain, are unwilling to risk placing their troops in a position where they could clash with Russian forces. This division plays directly into Putin’s strategy of deterring a united Western military response.
Prospects for a negotiated peace, which would be a prerequisite for any security mission, appear bleak. Both Moscow and Kyiv remain far apart, with Putin calling a deal “practically impossible” and Zelenskyy questioning the Kremlin’s desire for peace. The diplomatic deadlock, combined with Putin’s latest threat, leaves Ukraine’s long-term security in a state of high uncertainty.