The effectiveness of US trade policy in influencing India’s crude procurement became evident in 2025, with the 25% punitive tariff achieving its intended deterrent effect on Russian crude purchases. Data shows that US crude imports to India surged by 65.6% to $8.2 billion during April-December 2025, while Russian crude imports contracted by more than 17%, falling from $40 billion to $33.1 billion year-on-year.
December 2025 data demonstrates the tariff’s effectiveness. Russian crude shipments to India totaled $2.71 billion, down 15.15% from $3.2 billion in December 2024, and down more than 35% from November 2025’s $3.72 billion. Russia became the only supplier among India’s top five to record negative growth, precisely the outcome the tariff was designed to achieve.
Alternative suppliers benefited from the policy-driven reorientation. Saudi Arabia posted exceptional growth of 61%, delivering crude worth $1.75 billion in December 2025. The United States, whose government imposed the tariff, recorded a 31% increase in crude exports to India, reaching $569.30 million. Iraq contributed $2.37 billion, up 4.56%, while the UAE supplied $1.65 billion, reflecting a 6% annual rise.
The 25% punitive tariff on Indian goods, implemented on August 27, 2025, was explicitly designed to deter India from purchasing sanctioned Russian petroleum. Monthly import figures validate the policy’s effectiveness: Russian crude imports stood at $3.62 billion in July 2025, before the tariff, and declined to $2.71 billion by December 2025, demonstrating clear policy impact.
India’s total crude oil imports from all sources reached $11.29 billion in December 2025, up 9.1% from $10.34 billion in December 2024. Cumulative imports for April-December 2025 totaled $105.10 billion, compared to $109.33 billion in the corresponding period of 2024. The data confirms the tariff’s role in reshaping India’s crude import patterns.