The evacuation of Oman’s Mina Al Fahal oil export terminal Thursday highlighted just how few viable crude export routes remain in the Gulf region as Iran’s military campaign systematically targets the infrastructure underpinning regional energy flows. The terminal, one of the last operational export points in the area, was cleared of vessels after drone strikes hit a neighboring port. Brent crude climbed back toward $100 a barrel as the shrinking number of export options became clear to markets.
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed to normal traffic since the conflict began on February 28, blocking approximately a fifth of global seaborne oil and gas. Iraq shut its oil export ports following tanker attacks, and Bahrain placed part of the country under shelter-in-place orders after fuel tanks were struck. The Thai-registered Mayuree Naree was hit near the strait, with three crew members reported trapped.
Brent gained 9% Thursday to touch $100.29 before settling at around $98. West Texas Intermediate climbed 8.6% to $94.75. Oil started 2026 at around $60 a barrel, reached $119 at this week’s peak, and has settled into a sustained elevated range. Saudi Aramco warned of catastrophic consequences if the shutdown continues.
The IEA released 400 million barrels of emergency crude from 32 member nations, and the US released 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Despite these actions, the shrinking number of Gulf export routes available to ship oil to global markets is becoming a structural problem that reserve releases cannot address.
Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $71 per barrel. Deutsche Bank warned of stagflation risks. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.6%, South Korea’s Kospi lost 1.2%, and European gas prices rose 7.7%.