The United States is attempting to open a new economic front in the effort to end the war in Ukraine, with President Donald Trump proposing that the EU join him in imposing crippling tariffs of up to 100% on India and China. This strategy aims to punish nations seen as providing an economic lifeline to Vladimir Putin’s regime, thereby indirectly pressuring Moscow to halt its military aggression. The plan was unveiled in Washington during discussions between American officials and the EU’s sanctions chief, David O’Sullivan.
This pivot to aggressive trade measures comes as diplomatic efforts to broker a peace deal have faltered, leaving Trump frustrated. Russia’s recent drone attacks, including its largest-ever air assault on Ukraine, have added urgency to the White House’s search for alternative ways to exert pressure. The US has made its move contingent on European participation, signaling a desire for a united Western economic bloc against Russia’s supporters.
The focus on India and China is no coincidence, as both nations have maintained robust trade and diplomatic ties with Moscow throughout the conflict. Just last month, the US unilaterally raised tariffs on Indian imports to 50% due to the country’s significant purchases of Russian oil. Despite this punitive measure, Trump has maintained a cordial tone regarding separate trade negotiations with Prime Minister Modi, expressing confidence in a “successful conclusion.”
The entire strategy, however, is built on legally uncertain ground. The president’s authority to set tariffs is being challenged, and the case is now heading to the Supreme Court. While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent projects confidence in a victory, a loss would be a major blow, forcing the US to issue tens of billions of dollars in refunds and undermining its ability to use trade as a tool of foreign policy.